Race No. 9
Medic Drug Grand Prix of Cleveland
Presented by Star Bank
Burke Lakefront Airport
Cleveland, Ohio
June 25-27, 1999
| SpeedCenter Rearview Mirror: 1996 Pole Winner: Jimmy Vasser 1997 Pole Winner: Alex Zanardi 1998 Pole Winner: Jimmy Vasser 1996 Race Winner: Gil de Ferran 1997 Race Winner: Alex Zanardi 1998 Race Winner: Alex Zanardi 1996 SpeedCenter Report 1997 SpeedCenter Report 1998 SpeedCenter Report Cleveland Weather |  |
The 223 Points Theory
By Greg Spotts
Making predictions is always a dangerous game. But as the Fedex Championship Series heads to the ninth race of the season at Cleveland, the field of legitimate contenders for the championship has narrowed to seven.
How so? The consistency of Dario Franchitti and team Kool Green. Dario has not won a race this year, but leads the series in podium finishes with five. Dario has scored an average of over ten points per race on the oval-heavy portion of the schedule. With a long stretch of road courses ahead, Dario is expected to do even better, since his three career victories occurred in the second half of last season on road courses.
What about the rookie barnstormer Juan Montoya? The young driver with the amazing car control may very well win the championship with another string of consecutive victories like he had in the first part of the season. Montoya has an all-or-nothing driving style, hanging out on the edge of control. Nobody's faster, but Franchitti is more consistent, able to save fuel and preserve his tires while staying within a click of Montoya's lap times.
Montoya's end of the season points total is difficult to pinpoint. But the consistent Franchitti can be expected to continue to harvest an average of ten points per race, which amounts to an average finish of fifth place. Sustaining his current pace would give Franchitti a total of 223 points by the end of the season. So any driver who wants to win the championship has to do the math and figure out how to reach 224 points by November. Only the top seven drivers in the points standings can do it.
Dario Franchitti's teammate Paul Tracy sits in eighth place with 46 points. Paul would have to finish on the podium in every one of the twelve remaining races in order to break 215 points. In order to even think about the championship, Tracy, Jimmy Vasser, Tony Kanaan, Helio Castro-Neves or Bryan Herta will have to win several races in a hurry and hope Franchitti and Montoya run into trouble.
Let's take a look at the five drivers nipping on the heels of Montoya and Franchitti. Third place Gil de Ferran has a similar driving style to Franchitti, running fast and staying out of trouble. Gil finished second in the points standings in 1997 without winning a race. He drives the same Honda-Reynard as the two leaders: only the wild-card of Goodyear tires can keep Gil from staying near the points leaders through the rest of the season.
Fourth place Greg Moore is a great driver with an excellent team. But his Mercedes engine hasn't achieved a road course podium finish since its introduction at the beginning of the '98 season. According to Moore's teammate Patrick Carpentier, the exit of the first corner at Cleveland is a major test of driveability, so watch the Mercedes pilots attempt to put the power down this weekend. If they have trouble staying with the Honda and Ford drivers, Moore's championship hopes will be fading fast.
Fifth place Adrian Fernandez has an excellent chance of staying in the hunt for the PPG cup. Adrian drives well on ovals and road courses, and has a competitive Ford-Reynard-Firestone package. Adrian finally took delivery of a new '99 Reynard at Portland, qualified fifth and finished fourth. Now that he's put the chassis question behind him, Adrian certainly has the capability to finish consistently in the top five.
The final two championship contenders are Newman-Haas teammates Michael Andretti and Christian Fittipaldi. Both drivers were frustrated at Portland, their races ruined by technical problems. Andretti had a stall in the pits that was possibly linked to a failure in the engine electronics, and Fittipaldi inexplicably could not make the mileage necessary to finish the race in two stops. Andretti's banshee style guarantees that mistakes will be made, so he needs to win several more races to add a second PPG Cup to his trophy case. Christian, on the other hand, has finished every lap of every race this season and could stay in the championship mix with some regular podium finishes and, hopefully, his first career victory.
Cleveland should be an exciting race, with lots of places to pass and no walls to hit. My pick: Dario gets his first win of the season.